Improving the Predictability of Two Types of ENSO by the Characteristics of Extratropical Precursors

The Central Pacific (CP) and Eastern (EP) types of El Niño-Southern Oscillation events are distinctly different in terms their forming locations mechanisms. Using an updated physical-base statistical forecast model, the CP indices has overall higher skills than that EP due to persistent skill. At lead time beyond 6-month, predictability can be greatly enhanced by including extratropical precursor from North Pacific, confirming ocean-atmosphere interaction associated with (NPO)/Victoria Mode (VM) evolution. moderately south, resulting charging equatorial Pacific. We also find does not significantly decrease after 2000 while drops dramatically, suggesting strengthening impacts NPO/VM on CP-ENSO recent two decades.